Image source – Youtube
By Michael Kugelman 21 May 2023
People holding banners and Pakistani flags march down a street during a rally to show solidarity with the Pakistan Army in Peshawar, Pakistan.
A week after his arrest on corruption charges, former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan faces an escalating confrontation with the country’s political establishment. Recent developments suggest Pakistan’s military leadership is going full throttle to sideline Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party from politics. National elections, currently scheduled for October, loom.
Khan blamed Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir for ordering his arrest by paramilitary forces last Tuesday; he was released a few days later. Just before his arrest, Khan repeated allegations that a senior military officer was behind a November assassination attempt against him, which the military denies. Pakistan’s army doesn’t take well to such public allegations.
On Monday, the military released a statement vowing to use the Pakistan Army Act to prosecute the protesters who attacked military facilities after Khan’s arrest, warning that “restraint will no longer be exercised.” (PTI leaders have denounced the violence.) The 1952 law involves the use of military trials, mainly to prosecute military officers. A 2015 amendment gave the military more leeway to prosecute civilians, but it expired in 2019.
This statement, endorsed by civilian leaders, should be read in the context of Pakistan’s recent Supreme Court rulings, which ordered Khan’s release and rejected an earlier government decision to delay two provincial elections. Army leaders seem concerned that the high courts may be too lenient toward Khan—and seek to literally take the law into their own hands.
Even before the military’s statement, Pakistani authorities detained other PTI leaders, purportedly for their role in the violent protests. In conversations with Foreign Policy, PTI supporters in Pakistan also described friends having been arrested in recent days for attending peaceful protests. According to the party, police have even arrested family members of PTI leaders. A few PTI leaders have now announced that they will leave the party, citing the protests against the military—although they could have faced pressure to resign.
Khan remains free on bail for now, but he could be arrested again under any of the numerous charges facing him—which he dismisses as politically motivated. On Wednesday, Khan said police had surrounded his house and that he feared he would be detained again. Islamabad has now accused him of sheltering people involved in the violent protests and threatened to stage a police operation if he does not release them to the authorities within 24 hours.
Although the detentions of PTI leaders and supporters could weaken the party, arresting Khan again and holding him for an extended period could deal it a damaging blow. The PTI revolves around its charismatic and popular leader, and the party may struggle to maintain momentum—and its identity—with him behind bars.
Furthermore, Pakistan’s senior leadership—both civilian and military—seems determined to keep Khan from returning to power; with him detained in the long term, it could redouble efforts to get him disqualified from public office ahead of elections. But with the courts pushing back against Pakistan’s current government and the military’s leverage weakened by public fury, this strategy isn’t guaranteed to succeed.
De-escalation may prove elusive. After reports surfaced that some corps commanders refused to carry out Munir’s orders, PTI supporters hoped the army might ease its crackdown. But the military denied those reports and issued its warning of no restraint. There is already bad blood between Munir and Khan; the Army chief was fired from his then-position as spy chief when Khan was prime minister, reportedly after Munir produced evidence of corruption linked to Khan’s wife.
Before Khan’s arrest, government and opposition leaders met to try to ease tensions. But recent events have seemingly taken talks off the table—because the mood isn’t conducive for talks but also because many potential opposition negotiators are in jail. As for prospects for external mediation, the United Arab Emirates, one of Pakistan’s key partners, reportedly offered its services and was rebuffed by Munir.
The trajectory of the crisis now appears to hinge on national elections, which will stoke tensions whether they happen according to schedule or not. If the vote goes ahead in October, the losers will likely reject the results. But postponing elections would violate the constitution and defy the will of the public.
The October elections could signal a victory for constitutionalism and thus offer Pakistan’s best shot at an off-ramp—even if they only bring short-term relief from the political crisis.