India’s ‘Nirbhay’ Missile Test and Implications for Pakistan

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by Syeda Saiqa Bukhari 16 May 2019

India, under its hegemonic tendencies, has always desired to dominate the South Asian region and to become one of the major powers in the region and beyond. Driven by its regional and global hegemonic designs, India is involved in several missiles’ development programs. Recently, on April 15, 2019, India carried out a successful test of its indigenously developed long-range subsonic stealth cruise missile ‘Nirbhay’ which is capable of reaching its target with the speed of 864.36km per hour and a low altitude of 100 meters.

The Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) of India developed this missile having an operational range of 1,000 km guided by the indigenously developed advanced inertial navigation system (INS). With the help of INS, Nirbhay can accurately hit the intended target. This missile is designed to carry nuclear or conventional warheads of 300kg to 400kg and allegedly covered the designated target range in 42 minutes and 23 seconds. According to the Indian Ministry of Defence, this trial test was conducted to “prove the repeatability of boost phase and cruise phase using waypoint navigation at very low altitudes.” Nirbhay can be launched from different platforms, i.e. aircraft, ground-based vehicles or launcher, ships or submarine. India is on its course to test the air-launched version of Nirbhay which is scheduled to be taking place in 2 to 3 years.

Nirbhay cruise missile can fly at different altitudes ranging from 500m and 4 km above the ground, which decreases the chances of detection by the adversary radar system. The cruise missile has loitering ability, which means that it can go around a target and perform several maneuvers and then re-engage the target. In other words, once the Nirbhay missile is above the target and is put on a ‘loiter’ pattern, the officials can easily decide as to whether a strike still needs to be carried out or not (if not then it will self-destruct above the target).

It also can enter deep into the adversary area and engage targets with high precision. The recent test is significant because it is the second successful test of Nirbhay after November 2017. India started the Nirbhay program in 2004 to be completed in 2016 but remained unsuccessful because of the technological issues (missile’s flight control software and navigation system). Before 2017 test, four trial tests of Nirbhay were conducted but ended in failure. With the capabilities as mentioned above, India can use Nirbhay to target military camps or intended targets in enemy territory with fewer chances of collateral damage.

An important aspect is the timing of the missile test. This trial test of Nirbhay is conducted in such an environment when tensions between India and Pakistan are at an all-time high in the aftermath of Pulwama attack, whereas the general elections 2019 have already started in India. In the backdrop of February 2019 military escalation between India and Pakistan, the timing of this missile test from India is crucial. After four failed tests in 2013, 2014,2015 and 2016, India has finally successfully tested this missile in such a critical time to project its ambitions vis-à-vis Pakistan. Within this range, it is solely aimed at targeting certain areas inside Pakistan’s border while staying well within the Indian territory. The notion of preemption against Pakistan is a core element of Indian joint armed forces doctrine of 2017 and land warfare doctrine of 2018. The Nirbhay missile allows for the possibility of a limited war with Pakistan.

Though Pakistan’s subsonic cruise missile (Babur) is compatible with India’s Nirbhay missile, this test will further enhance the ongoing crisis and mistrust between the two nuclear-armed states. Moreover, this test is an addition to recent Indian developments, i.e. anti-satellite ballistic missile, Electronic Management Intelligence Satellite’ EMISAT’, Dhanush Artillery gun. These developments show that India is trying to further escalate the ongoing politico-military tensions with Pakistan. Indian political elite, especially Prime Minister Modi, is using hatred against Pakistan as a trump card to get maximum support in general elections and to form a government again. India is not only working on the latest supersonic or hypersonic missile (BrahMos), but it is also testing indigenously made subsonic missiles (Nirbhay) to fill the existing gap in Indian armed forces warfighting capabilities. Furthermore, through this test, it is evident that India is willing to enhance its first strike capability vis-à-vis Pakistan, thus abandoning ‘no first use’ (NFU) policy.

In the South Asian context, the historical rivalry between India and Pakistan has always played a crucial role in shaping the security dynamics of the region. Pakistan’s major security threats emerge from India due to the Indian hegemonic designs. To overcome Indian conventional and unconventional threats, Pakistan’s nuclear and missile program is solely based on providing deterrence against India. ‘Nirbhay’ like Indian initiatives can destabilize the strategic equilibrium of South Asia and will discourage any peace initiative in the South Asian region. Such developments will trigger an arms race in terms of the development of cruise missiles by two hostile South Asian neighbors; India and Pakistan.