by Nilofar Suhrawardy 23 February 2021
West Bengal is not a part of India’s Hindi belt, where Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is understood to have a clear edge above its rival parties. Neither are people of the state easily convinced by communal cards often tried by BJP and its extremist groups to play on voters’ sensitive religious chords. Besides, with recent years having spelled economic woes of several kinds, including inflation and unemployment, political rhetoric indulged in by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his colleagues may not easily move Bengali voters to favor BJP. Nevertheless, the Prime Minister is going overboard in trying to win them over by donning Rabindranath Tagore’s appearance. He is convinced that Bengalis have “made up their mind.”
Considering that BJP has recently been jolted by the results of urban polls in Punjab, it may not be wrong to assume that this party is being a little over-optimistic about being favored in West Bengal. Yes, this refers to Congress having recently swept Punjab Municipal Elections. Congress leaders have described the results as a big slap for BJP, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Certainly, the results indicate that voters have delivered a massive electoral punch to BJP for not paying attention to protesting farmers’ demand. Clearly, the electoral results reflect voters’ decisions not being taken lightly by the central government. SAD’s past alliance with BJP has apparently proved expensive for both. Had the two remain aligned, it is possible SAD may have failed even more miserably. The results have strongly been decided by voters’ anti-BJP stand and farmers’ demand for withdrawal of agricultural laws. Regarding AAP, this party’s significance is still confined to Delhi, and voters of other states don’t seem inclined to give it much importance.
Soon after the results’ declaration, speculations have been voiced as it is a strong shock for BJP, “a teaser” for forthcoming assembly elections. Of course, expectations are also in the air about better political tidings for Congress in the coming days. And here is the catch. It would be wiser of Congress not to be over-confident about its political future. It is possible if farmers’ protest was not on and if the BJP-SAD alliance had not split, Congress might not have performed as well as it has. Some credit must also be given to campaigning indulged in by committed Congress workers. Nevertheless, Congress must not ignore the fact that the negative image earned by BJP by refusing to yield to farmers’ demand has proved expensive for it in these elections. And it is BJP’s negative image that has apparently yielded positive results for Congress.
Ahead of Punjab urban polls, Congress performed well in Rajasthan civic elections, gaining a lead over BJP. Jolted twice, BJP has some reason to celebrate following its victory in Gujarat Municipal Elections held earlier this week. This indicates that Gujarat remains a strong-hold of the BJP, with the state’s voters hardly affected by farmers’ protest. The reverse stands true about Punjab, where Congress heads the state government. Congress also heads Rajasthan’s state government. In West Bengal, Mamata Bannerjee (Trinamool Congress- TMC) has been chief minister for two consecutive terms and is hopeful of returning to power.
Several crucial assembly elections are scheduled for the present and coming year. Apart from West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Assam also face state elections this year. Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Gujarat are among the states heading for these in 2022. Not surprisingly, a lot of importance is being accorded to the possible influence of farmers’ protests on the political mood in these states.
The timing is just perfect for Congress to cash on this and continue its campaign on an extensive scale as its members can. Let us accept the hard fact that Congress needs to focus more appropriately on seat-sharing with its allies and/or probable allies and BJP’s rivals in forthcoming assembly elections. In this context, Bihar assembly elections’ results may be recalled. It was a tight fight between BJP and its rivals, with results favoring the former. Certainly, it was sensible of Congress to enter into a grand alliance with BJP’s rivals. However, the same party went over-board in contesting more seats than it probably should have. It would have been politically wiser for Congress to let regional parties contest more seats than be a little uncompromising about the same.
Against this backdrop, Congress and regional parties need to understand BJP’s game-plan. Clearly, BJP’s key motive is first to build friendly ties with regional parties and leaders, turn the political tide in its own favor and then pull the rug from under the feet of its allies, leaving them practically powerless in their own states. What else has BJP’s former alliance with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) led to? PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti did not remain the state chief minister for too long. Shiv Sena has apparently understood this strategy of BJP and has thus preferred an alliance with BJP’s rivals to retain its hold in its home state. Nitish Kumar in Bihar is apparently trying to come to terms with this game-plan of BJP.
Congress needs to plan its strategy by focusing on BJP’s agenda carefully. A key aim of BJP is also that of limiting chances of Congress by aligning with regional parties. The regional parties have initially welcomed this move of BJP, seeing this as spelling greater power for them in their own home states. In Bihar, one primary motive of Nitish Kumar’s alliance with BJP was to limit chances of Lalu Prasad’s party (Rashtriya Janata Dal –RJD)’s return to power. The grand alliance formed against his party’s alliance with BJP lost just by a few seats. It may have won had RJD contested from more seats and Congress lesser.
Electorally, it would perhaps be wiser of Congress to try cards that would ensure anti-BJP regional parties return to power in states where its own chances are at present quite limited. This includes West Bengal. Clearly, the prior aim of the BJP is to try and push Mamata Bannerjee out of power. It is playing cards to win TMC members to its camp. And, of course, Prime Minister Modi is going overboard in trying to present himself as Tagore.
BJP returned to power in the 2019 parliamentary elections by securing less than 40% votes. Had the other 60% votes not been divided, India’s political map may have been different. Likewise, Congress may not have emerged victorious in Punjab Municipal elections had BJP-SAD not parted company and farmers were not protesting. Clearly, quite a few issues have spoiled BJP’s chances, particularly economically, and people are well aware. But their votes can get divided.
West Bengal, at present, is headed for a fight primarily between TMC, Congress-Left alliance, and BJP. Congress used this strategy in 2016 polls too. Hopefully, the party reconsiders this seriously, and anti-BJP parties reach a silent understanding.
Congress is acting wisely by supporting farmers’ protests, which began last year on August 9. At the same time, Congress cannot afford to be over-confident about its gain in states with a weaker standing than regional parties and/or BJP. West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh fall in this category. In assembly polls, where regional parties/leaders have a strong base, the chances of the state’s voters being strongly influenced by national leaders and other states’ parties are limited. This is likely to hold in West Bengal also. The Bengali voter is least likely to be influenced by Modi’s Tagore image and/or by national parties, whether Congress or BJP!